Econometrica: Sep, 1979, Volume 47, Issue 5

Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations

https://doi.org/0012-9682(197909)47:5<1267:EACOAM>2.0.CO;2-Q
p. 1267-1286

John B. Taylor

The paper investigates an econometric method for selecting macroeconomic policy rules when expectations are formed rationally. A simple econometric model of the U.S. is estimated subject to a set of rational expectations restrictions using a minimum distance estimation technique. The estimated model is then used to calculate optimal monetary policy rules to stabilize fluctuations in output and inflation, and to derive a long run tradeoff between price stability and output stability which incorporates the rationally formed expectations. The optimal tradeoff curve is compared with actual U.S. price and output stability and with the results of a monetary policy rule with a constant growth rate of the money supply.